Automation and the Future Economy

So here it is, my much-anticipated post about automation.

Now, before we get into this whole thing, allow me to just say that I see the general process of automation already happening in our economy. This isn’t some far-fetched sci-fi concept, it is happening right now and in front of us. I’m not going to deal too heavily in the realms of speculation, but it is necessary for this post to even begin to talk about this issue with any sort of relevance. I will attempt to be realistic, but I need you to also activate the part of your mind that can predict, imagine, and speculate in order for us to delve into this issue effectively. Let’s start with what we know. Simple and repetitive tasks have been replaced in manufacturing for some time, that’s what killed the assembly line and drove many people to service jobs. Amazon has replaced the need for people to go to actual stores, even at stores there are automatic tills. One person can watch ten self-checkouts, thus phasing out nine jobs. This is just the infancy of automation, people would rather not interact with other people in many circumstances (this is another issue and post), and the need to interact is going to be less, and the problem is going to get worse as the tech only gets better.

But this is the tip of the iceberg. A friend of mine pointed out the other day that the jobs most likely to be replaced early on and possibly first are those focussed on numbers and rules, i.e. finance and accounting jobs. The danger with these jobs is they rely largely on algorithms, number crunching, and logic in order for the person performing them to be effective, and these are things that are easily replicated by AI. Currently, jobs in finance and economics are very popular with majors in these fields being some of the most prevalent. This doesn’t bode well, considering how many of these jobs may be phased out in the future. The sheer number of people that will be left without work and with training that is now obsolete is staggering.

For desk jobs like those above, there is no need for the AI to have a physical body. This removes one very crucial logistical barrier. One thing I think will create some practical difficulties is jobs that require interacting with the world or have any sort of component which requires a physical presence for the AI, but this will, in time, be overcome. I think that for jobs requiring a physical presence, driving jobs may face endangerment sooner than others.

With vehicles, the AI has a ready-built physical presence. All that is necessary is that the AI be built into whatever they are controlling, and the program be sophisticated enough so that the vehicle will operate as well or better than a human operator would. Autonomous cars and other vehicles will therefore account for another big hit to the labour market, and it is one that could be fairly close. It’s happening already, Google has developed a car that can drive itself, and a few specific states and cities have already seen driverless Ubers. The full story of these driverless Ubers is quite interesting in and of itself, and I would suggest you check it out when you have time. Currently, the driverless program Uber was engaged in is halted due to an accident where a female pedestrian died, but it’s only a matter of time before many companies get the clear for driverless vehicles and all or most of the driving jobs get the axe. I think within a decade we could see this happening. Imagine how many jobs will be taken out of the labour market simply from this change. A quick Google search tells me that there are 3.5 million truck drivers in the United States alone, that’s an instant 1% higher unemployment rate, but it goes beyond that. Imagine all the cab drivers, bus drivers, truck drivers, equipment operators, train conductors, and even some pilots and sea crews being replaced. That’s to say nothing of all the jobs that are often generated by these people spending money in the economy.

This is the early days of automation being able to replace our jobs. Many more jobs could face termination as robotics technology gets more sophisticated. Before we get into that, I want to propose something to you, my dear reader. I will posit that, as a society, we need to put pressure on our governments to put more pressure on corporations on our behalf. We have watched companies and conglomerates gradually and systematically lower the average wages of workers for years. Over the last few decades, more and more labour has been sent overseas in Canada, America, and other parts of the “developed” world. While exporting high-paying jobs to markets where they can pay poverty wages, large corporations simultaneously open retailers where they can pay the workers minimum wage and slowly leech the wealth away from a diminishing middle class. These companies do not care about the general well-being of people, and we need to tread carefully as they begin to replace us with workers who require no wage. If we aren’t careful I could see us living in a dystopian society in the future consisting of an elite class, a servile population of androids, a completely non-existent middle class, and an expansive but dwindling lower class. This technology, like many forms of technology, has the potential to go well and increase our quality of life or to go badly and diminish it, depending on how it’s used and the hands that guide it.

I firmly believe in the importance of a society that recognizes the upcoming threat and demands representation by its governments. What kind of representation? Well, here’s where I’m going to contradict what I said in my intros, I’m going to be hopeful but not very realistic. I think our governments must strive for our best interests when dealing with the corporations that truly hold the power in this world. Our governments must demand a certain level of insurance, a taxation for the use of automation to provide certain protections for the people. This has been a prevalent topic already in conversations on automation, in fact, Bill Gates himself has suggested that we introduce such a tax. The next step here is a basic living allowance. Yes, I’m talking about socialism in the face of our obsolescence. This is what is necessary to maintain a decent quality of life and ensure a future for ourselves, our children, and our children’s children. Few corporations anywhere have done the right thing without adequate pressure to do so. Governments do not react without pressure from the people, and now is the time to act, not in the future, but today. Before the issue comes down the pipe, not when it is knocking at our door.

“But, Ben,” you say, “some autonomous cars and a self-checkout or two aren’t going to fund a socialist utopia in the future.”

Well, no, but that’s just phase one again. I also don’t see any of this stuff happening overnight, it’s going to be a gradual shift from a world where 95% of the jobs are performed by people to one where maybe 10% of them are. Imagine when the jobs being replaced are no longer limited by logistics. Yes, I’m talking about androids. I know it seems like sci-fi, and it may seem like I’m breaking my realistic rule again, but hear me out. This technology is not far off, two decades, maybe three, tops. Already leaps and bounds are being made in robotics technology that indicate another wave will follow the replacement of many driving jobs. In the last decade alone, we’ve seen some weird things happening with Androids, including Saudi Arabia naming their first android citizen with Sophia. Sophia may not be ready to do much, but give it time. It goes faster than you think, and it’s better to be proactive than reactive. Many basic service jobs can be outmoded by a fairly rudimentary design for an android, another decade after that, you could potentially phase out many more specialized jobs with more sophisticated androids, ultimately leaving only a handful of jobs untouchable. 

The fact is this: change is coming. On the one hand, if handled well and all the levels of Maslow’s hierarchy are provided nicely, then what this robo-rise could trigger is a golden age where many citizens are free to self-actualize. With this many people reaching their full potential, we may have entire generations pushing the forefront of human progress. Honestly, who knows what we could do if this was our reality. Maybe this new automated world could free mankind up to be able to make even greater leaps and bounds in terms of science, technology, and art. The flip side of this whole issue is the potential for a world where these things are not properly handled, and automation creates generations of scarcity where many people find themselves unemployed. The world’s wealth will then inevitably go to a smaller and smaller group. Ultimately, many of the lower class would be forced to live in squalor and eventually phase into smaller and smaller family sizes until ultimately dying out. Seem far-fetched? It’s happening already! The end result would be a massive reduction in population, which may sound all well and good until you realize that all your friends and family and their as-of-yet unborn progeny are included in that “population reduction”. The human population needs to shrink, we can all agree on that, but who gets to carry on? Who is removed from the picture? This is a class war and a culture war that has yet to fully be realized. 

To my mind, there will be a rise of automation, many jobs will become obsolete. I’m not just pulling this out of nowhere. It’s widely agreed upon that automation is coming, and the effect will be the loss of many jobs for humans. The jobs that remain will be paid at lower rates. The question isn’t if, it’s when. When will this happen? It could be anytime in the next decade to several decades from now, but when it does occur there will likely be a significant reduction in the availability of jobs in general as well as lucratively paying jobs. So, then the only remaining question then is how. How do we want it to play out? 

Now is the time for action. We don’t need to be afraid of the future because it will happen one way or another. As I’ve already pointed out, it could be a good thing, the best thing for our species, in fact. I will do an entire other post on how I think our socialist system needs to be set up in the future to ensure that people still live rewarding and fulfilling lives and don’t end up just binge-watching Netflix and eating bag after bag of Doritos. So, as always, the fact remains that we, the general populace, have a collective power and, thus, some say in how things play out. So, how do we want them to play out? The time is now to begin thinking about these things, and once we’ve thought a bit about them, we need to talk about them. Talk about them with your friends, your family, your co-workers, leaders, and elected officials. We all deserve a stake in the world that is coming, and by demanding responsible, ethical development we can all have a piece of the future for us and our offspring.

I will leave you with a link that might be useful.

This is a link to a UK telegraph article that links to an Oxford database. Here you can check how disposable your job is:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/27/jobs-risk-automation-according-oxford-university-one/